Sunday 30 November 2014

Patriots vs Packers: Is this a Super Bowl preview?

Today sees the 9-2 New England Patriots take their seven game winning streak to Lambeau Field where they will face off against the Green Bay Packers in a clash between what many consider to be the two best teams in football right now. This is the first time ever that Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers' teams will go head to head which is something that somehow adds more spice to what is already the most mouthwatering affair of this 2014 NFL season to date.



In their last 3 games the Patriots have faced all division leaders and defeated all 3 in comfortable fashion. Before their bye week they hosted the Denver Broncos and blew them out of the water with Tom Brady putting on a passing clinic in a 43-21 victory and after the bye week they went to Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Colts where they wore down the defense of the Colts with ground and pound football in a 42-20 win.

That game saw a new starlet in the form of Jonas Gray who scored 4 touchdowns that night to deflate Indianapolis just as they did in last years playoffs when LaGarrette Blount did the same in another blowout victory. Blount has sinced resigned with the team and celebrated his return with a touchdown in last weeks 34-9 victory against Detroit at Gillette Stadium where the Patriots frustrated the Lions' offense with brilliant defensive play. They mixed up the schemes and showed different coverages to limit Calvin Johnson and frustrate Matthew Stafford.

The Patriots recipe to success many times during the Brady-Belichick era has been playing 60 minutes of smart football and that is what they will need tonight when they come up against Aaron Rodgers and co. Just like New England the Green Bay Packers started the season at 2-2 and came under intense scrutiny from many but following a blowout defeat on the road in New Orleans 44-23 before their bye week the Pack have come out all guns blazing and have scored a combined 132 points in their last three outings giving them huge wins at home over Chicago and Philadelphia before winning a close one against Minnesota on the road 24-21 last weekend.

The fact that the Patriots have also scored over triple digits in total with 119 points in their past three games just shows how breathtaking today's game could be and with Brady and Rodgers at the QB position it is very unlikely that these two teams will disappoint us. With the two best offenses in football at their disposal Brady and Rodgers will both be looking to put their best work on display under the lights of prime time football. Terrific Tom has 26 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions on the year with 2,998 passing yards to his name too and a QB rating of 101.0 which is very impressive considering how poorly the Pats started the year.

A-Rod better known as Aaron Rodgers well he has been in devastating form this season and has accumulated 30 touchdown passes to just 3 picks and is also just short of the 3,000 yard passing mark with 2,957 yards on the year. He is way ahead passer rating wise of all the other quarterbacks with a ridiculous overall rating of 119.3 which just explains how great Rodgers is. Tonight personally and what a lot of people have suggested already is a matchup between the two best quarterbacks of their respective eras and between two QB's who will definitely be in the conversation for greatest quarterback of all-time for years and years to come.

Who will lead their team to victory in today's game?


Now despite the Packers early season woes besides a rusty opening season game against Seattle where Green Bay looked scared they have bounced back very well to get to 8-3 and as mentioned previously their displays in recent weeks have been amazing but the Patriots troublesome times early on in 2014 are almost incomparable. It has been said time after time but after that Monday Night madness against the Chiefs back in week 4 the Patriots came under so much scrutiny in particular Tom Brady.

After that huge bounce back win against Cincinnati the Patriots have been on a hot streak steamrolling through everyone in their path. Despite his supposed woes Brady still managed to rarely turn the football over even during this offenses poor start to the year now when you combine the fact of Brady's intelligence with how well this New England offense is doing then you can start to see as well as appreciate why this team is so devastating. The return of Rob Gronkowski has been unquestionable one of the main ingredients for how effective this Patriots offense has been and it has been brilliant to see Gronk return to the superstar level that only a handful of other players in the league can reach. He continues to dominate opponents and will be a real handful for the Packers and it will be interesting to see if Clay Matthews stays as an inside backer especially given the resurgence of the Patriots run game.

The prospect of a Gray-Blount one two punch gives Shane Vereen the ability to do what he does best which is catch passes out of the backfield and cause mismatches for opposing defenses. As we know this Patriots offense has been in devastating form with everyone contributing to its success which has helped Brady and Gronk have such a devastating affect just because they don't have all the pressure to get it done themselves now that everyone else is stepping up and a lot of that credit should go to the offensive line who, now that it has a settled starting line up, has brought the stability and great lineman play needed in order to make this New England offense tick once again.

Having a mad scientist-coaching mastermind in the form of Bill Belichick helps the Patriots offense because with the players they have on the other side of the ball it has given them the opportunities needed to make plays and both the defense and offense are helping each other out. This is especially true this season as this Patriots defense is probably the best we have seen since 2007 when New England almost pulled off the perfect season. Bill Belichick is having lots of fun defensively this year and he along with defensive coordinator Matt Patricia are thriving with the talent they have on this side of the ball with the likes of Revis, Browner, Arrington Hightower, Collins, Chung, McCourty, Chandler and Chris Jones, Ninkovich and even the new additions of Ayers and Casillas coming to mind.

They'll need whoever is on the field tonight to be at their best when they come up against Rodgers and co as they have a stellar receiving core with Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson leading the way along with a supporting cast of Boykin and rookie wideout Devante Adams who has slowly worked his way in to the offense. Add running back Eddie Lacy to the mix who despite some personal on-field troubles himself at times this season still is considered to be one of the best backs in the league and you can see why this Packers offense is equipped to succeed. In a pass heavy team Lacy's stats sometimes don't reflect well on him but with his obvious talents it gives a different dimension to Green Bay and a running back that has the ability to succeed where maybe in years gone by this is something they've lacked.

As I mentioned before tonight sees, in my opinion, the best quarterbacks of two generations/eras whatever you like to call it go head to head. Brady and Belichick have not only won three Super Bowls together but they have also combined to pick up numerous accolades along with the respect of many for their many achievements over the last almost 15 years. Packers coach Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers if anything are both the next generation of Brady and Belichick. They may only have one ring to their name but surely at some point in their careers in Wisconsin at least a second championship will follow but the same regarding a fourth has been said about Brady-Belichick yet that hasn't happened as of yet.

Belichick and McCarthy both teased the media this week with the pair both asked to compare the two quarterbacks early in the week. Belichick's reply was "They both wear No. 12," before ending the media session and McCarthy's response to the same question was that "They're both from California," before he ended his session too. With both these franchises in prime positions to make a run at a championship under the guidance of brilliant head coaches and fantastic quarterbacks stemming down to well equipped offenses that know what it takes to win games in any way shape or form it is no wonder that this is being hyped up as a preview of Super Bowl XLIX come February 1st. 

Personally I don't see both of these teams making the big game and if I had to choose one to make it I would go with the Patriots just because they seem to be more well rounded overall of these two teams but in regards to tonight's game going to Lambeau Field is no easy task and that is what makes the prospect of tonight's matchup so gripping with the winner of tonight's game probably the hardest choice to make. Will the Patriots assert themselves as the best team in the NFL by making it 8 wins straight in one of the toughest places to play in football or will Rodgers and co derail the Brady led New England train and rack up their 4th straight win to take a step closer to getting a bye going in to the postseason... We'll find out in a few hours!

Thursday 27 November 2014

NFC Playoff Picture: Predictions

The NFC playoff picture is one of the most complicated pictures we have seen in recent memory. The Arizona Cardinals have built on an impressive 2013 season to take the NFC West by storm in 2014 which has left a huge possibility that two of the conferences juggernauts in Seattle and San Francisco may miss out on this years postseason. With Seattle traveling to San Francisco in the third installment of today's NFL Thanksgiving Feast it proves to be a mouthwatering day and one that could really influence the NFC playoff picture but also just over complicate it some more in the short term. So with that being said let us take a look




So far these are the 6 teams currently in the playoffs right now:










And here are the 4 teams on the brink of the playoffs. The NFC South is so bad that either the Saints, Falcons or Panthers will sneak in and that spot is anybody's guess. The Bears would have to win out starting with today's game against Detroit to have any chance whilst the 49ers could leapfrog the Seahawks in to the wild card spots with a win over them tonight before the two lock horns again in a couple of weeks.

Because of the nature of how complicated this playoff picture is I am going to take a somewhat unique take on this and predict each of the teams remaining schedules which will then make it, hopefully, easier to rank who I think will make the postseason and it what seeds so let's start from 1st place onwards.

Arizona Cardinals (9-2):

Week 13: Win @Atlanta
Week 14: Win at home vs Kansas City
Week 15: Lose @ St. Louis
Week 16: Lose at home vs Seattle
Week 17: Win @ San Francisco

Final record: 12-4: NFC West Champions. Their 9 conference wins gives them 1st seed and home field advantage over Green Bay


Green Bay Packers (8-3):

Week 13: Lose at home vs New England
Week 14: Win at home vs Atlanta
Week 15: Win @ Buffalo
Week 16: Win @ Tampa Bay
Week 17: Win at home vs Detroit

Final record: 12-4: NFC North Champions. One less win in the NFC means they have to settle for 2nd in the NFC seedings but they still get a bye week going in to the postseason

Dallas Cowboys (8-3):

Week 13: Win today at home vs Philadelphia *Thanksgiving game*
Week 14: Win @ Chicago
Week 15: Lose @ Philadelphea
Week 16: Lose @ Indianapolis
Week 17: Win at home vs Washington

Final record: 11-5: Finally the Dallas Cowboys are NFC East Champions earning them the 3rd seed and a home playoff game in the wild card round

4th seed: NFC South Winner?

Atlanta Falcons (4-7)

Week 13: Lose at home vs Arizona
Week 14: Lose @ Green Bay
Week 15: Win at home vs Pittsburgh
Week 16: Lose @ New Orleans
Week 17: Win at home vs Carolina

Final record: 6-10

Carolina Panthers (3-7-1)

Week 13: Win @ Minnesota
Week 14: Lose @ New Orleans
Week 15: Win at home vs Tampa Bay
Week 16: Win at home vs Cleveland
Week 17: Lose at Atlanta

Final record: 6-9-1

New Orleans Saints (4-7)

Week 13: Win @ Pittsburgh
Week 14: Win at home vs Carolina
Week 15: Lose @ Chicago
Week 16: Win at home vs Atlanta
Week 17: Lose @ Tampa Bay

Final record: 7-9:

After some crazy final day results during the regular season the Saints lose at Tampa Bay making them the second team to make the playoffs with a losing record. Carolina had a shot to make it in with a win @ Atlanta but they lost meaning the Falcons only have themselves to blame for not winning this dismal division after some narrow losses during the year meaning that Sean Payton's Saints take the 4th seed and the NFC South crown.

Final two spots go to....?

Seattle Seahawks (7-4):

Week 13: Lose today @ San Francisco *Thanksgiving game*
Week 14: Win @ Philadelphea
Week 15: Win at home vs San Francisco
Week 16: Win @ Arizona
Week 17: Win @ St. Louis

Final record: 11-5: The defending Super Bowl Champions sneak in to the postseason and avoid the tie-breaking complications with a win at St. Louis on the final day meaning they take the 5th seed and that they travel to New Orleans during wild card week!

Only one spot remains!:

Philadelphia Eagles (8-3):

Week 13: Lose today @ Dallas *Thanksgiving game*
Week 14: Lose at home vs Seattle
Week 15: Win at home vs Dallas
Week 16: Lose @ Washington
Week 17: Win vs New York Giants

Final record: 10-6

San Francisco 49ers (7-4):

Week 13: Win today at home vs Seattle *Thanksgiving game*
Week 14: Win @ Oakland
Week 15: Lose @ Seattle
Week 16  Win at home vs San Diego
Week 17: Lose @Arizona

Final record: 10-6

Detroit Lions (7-4)

Week 13: Lose today at home vs Chicago *Thanksgiving game*
Week 14: Win at home vs Tampa Bay
Week 15: Win at home vs Minnesota
Week 16: Win @ Chicago
Week 17: Lose @ Green Bay

Final record: 10-6

Chicago Bears (5-6)

Week 13: Win today @ Detroit *Thanksgiving game*
Week 14: Lose at home vs Dallas
Week 15: Win at home vs New Orleans
Week 16: Lose at home vs Detroit
Week 17: Win @ Minnesota

Final record: 8-8

And the 6th seed is: With the 49ers, Eagles and Lions all on 10-6 I've given myself quite the headache to try and work out who gets the 6 seed. According to NFL Tie-Breaking Procedures this is how it goes:

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.

2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

So according to my calculations as each of the three teams are from different divisions this we skip to step 2 but as the Lions and Niners didn't play each other step 2 doesn't apply so on to step 3 we go.... Time for me to calculate each of these teams conference winning ratios *stay with me*

Detroit Lions: 8-4 in conference games
San Francisco 49ers: 7-5 in conference games
Philadelphia Eagles: 6-6 in conference games

So with a 75% win ratio in the NFC the Detroit Lions make up our NFC playoff picture and will travel to Dallas in wild card week!

Skye's NFC playoff picture summary:

1st seed: Arizona Cardinals (12-4)
2nd seed: Green Bay Packers (12-4)
3rd seed: Dallas Cowboys: (11-5)
4th seed: New Orleans Saints (7-9)
5th seed: Seattle Seahawks (11-5)
6th seed: Detroit Lions (10-6)

*tie-breaking procedures explained above*