Saturday 18 January 2014

Championship Sunday!

Tomorrow is Championship Sunday and nobody can argue against the fact that the four best teams in the national football league have made it to what is one of the biggest and most highly anticipated double headers on a NFL Sunday in years! The AFC matchup sees two of the greatest quarterbacks to play the game go head to head once again as Tom Brady and the New England Patriots go on the road to take on the Peyton Manning led Denver Broncos. Then straight after that two arch enemies of the of the NFC West will have a rubber match with a place at Super Bowl XLVIII at stake as the red hot San Francisco 49ers walk in to the cauldron that is CenturyLink Field to face the Seattle Seahawks. Now it is time for me to look at these two games and give you my insight as well as my predictions for these two games.

NFC Championship game: San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks



The NFC Championship game sees the 49ers travel to Seattle for the third matchup of the season between these two bitter rivals. We have the two best defenses in football going up against each other in what is set to be a mouthwatering affair and as well as that both of these teams have two of the best young quarterbacks in the league in the shape of Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson respectively.

Earlier in the season the Niners walked in to CenturyLink Field for the week 2 game and were blown out 29-3. The 49ers offense was manhandled and the defense was blown away in a 4th quarter which saw them give up 17 points. Since then the Niners managed to defeat Seattle 19-17 to tie the series up on the year and when you include the teams two playoff victories over Green Bay and Carolina they have now won 8 straight. Colin Kaepernick is 3-0 on the road in the postseason and for a young QB already has valuable playoff experience after helping the team reach the Super Bowl last season; Joe Montana and Steve Young were 1-7 on the road in the postseason combined!

No team has made it back to the Super Bowl after suffering defeat the previous year to then go on and win it the next since the 1972 17-0 Miami Dolphins and the only other exception was the team who they lost to in that Super Bowl the year before; the 1971 Dallas Cowboys. So it is safe to say Jim Harbaugh's team are up against it statistically tomorrow especially when you consider that the Seattle Seahawks have only lost one game at home since Russell Wilson became the teams starting quarterback and after they defeated the Saints last week his record at home is now 16-1.

The second year quarterback also set a record this year when he recorded 24 years in his first two seasons in the league. Even head coach Pete Carroll holds an impressive 24-8 home record as the teams leader since he took over at the beginning of the 2010 season. When Carroll and Harbaugh face off there are always fireworks as these two head coaches just don't like each other so whether there will be hand shakes at the end of tomorrow nights game is anybody's call. You can guarantee there will be plenty of over dramatics tomorrow night from these two men in the form of jumping, excessive celebrating, shouting and fist pumping but I'm not complaining because passion is what makes sport so amazing and when you have two of the best teams in the league facing off against each other you want it to be a bit personal as it adds that extra bit of spice to the game.

In most games you can pinpoint a certain area that will go a long way to determining the result but in this Niners-Seahawks encounter it is hard to put your finger on the key points. Both defenses are tough, both defenses are hard hitting and both defenses are nasty I mean honestly I would not want to be an offensive player on either team tomorrow. Personally with the Legion of Boom at their disposal I think the Seattle defense is slightly better than that of the 49ers but that's not taking anything away from the likes of Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman of the Niners as those two linebackers are probably the two you'd choose to try and help stop Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch.

As we know the two Smith's Justin and Aldon aren't exactly bad themselves and the Niners secondary has the likes of Carlos Rodgers, Eric Wright and Eric Reid who ain't no slouches. Seattle's defense though as I said is slightly better and not just because of the likes of Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas in the secondary. Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett are great pass rushers and will look to disrupt any rhythm the 49ers offense looks to get going. Despite me giving the Seahawks an edge on defense the thing that makes this matchup interesting is that I believe the 49ers offense is better than that of their NFC West counterparts.

Russell Wilson is very efficient but in recent weeks he has been quiet whereas Colin Kaepernick continues to light it up in the postseason and since the return of Michael Crabtree to this San Francisco offense Kaepernick has looked a lot more dangerous. The passing game of the Niners has got going since Crabtree returned and that has given Kaepernick the ability to effect the game with his legs once again. He outplayed Cam Newton last week and personally I feel he is underrated as a passer and I would even say he is a better passer than Newton. Russell Wilson can make big plays though as he is very talented and not just a game manager so if Seattle need to cut him loose to make things happen I'm sure Pete Carroll will have no hesitation in doing so.

The only downside for Seattle offensively though is that offseason acquisition Percy Harvin has never got going this year due to injury problems and the concussion he suffered last week which rules him out of tomorrow's game pretty much sums up his 2013 campaign. Harvin was signed to be the playmaker that would give the Seahawks a different dimension offensively but that plan hasn't come to fruition. Baldwin, Kearse and Golden Tate are good receivers but in comparison to the 49ers wideouts they are no match. Anquan Boldin, Michael Crabtree and tight end Vernon Davis can cause Seattle problems tomorrow and Frank Gore is a very good running back who's name I haven't even mentioned yet!

With that being said though I feel that on the day Pete Carroll will get the edge over Jim Harbaugh because Carroll knows what it takes to beat the 49ers when his team is hosting them. Harbaugh is a great young coach and has taken his team to three straight conference championships but to get his team back to the Super Bowl could be a step too far. The Niners are hot and are on a very good streak but to walk out of Seattle with the NFC title is such a tough challenge. Seattle got the home loss out of the way during the regular season and have managed to refocus themselves for the task ahead that is the playoffs. It won't be a blow out and it will be a tightly contested affair which will come down to one or two critical plays in a matchup which will decide who takes the ultimate bragging rights in the NFC West and more importantly a trip to MetLife Stadium in 2 weeks time!

Prediction: 49ers 24-27 Seahawks


AFC Championship: New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos

The hype around this matchup is incredible as Tom Brady and Peyton Manning face off in the 15th installment of a quarterback rivalry that has lasted for over a decade. With both of these QB's in the later years of their 30's you would probably say that this could be the last time that these two face off with the stakes being as high as they are for tomorrow.

But as we know you should never count out Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. Manning has finally got to where he wants to be and that is within reach of a third Super Bowl appearance; he is having a monster season having broken Tom Brady's regular season record for passing touchdowns by throwing 55 and breaking Drew Brees' passing yards record by racking up 5,477. These stats will count for nothing though if the season doesn't end with Peyton hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in the air.

Tom Brady is quite simply Peyton Manning's kryptonite and there is no doubt about it because history doesn't lie. Even in recent memory you only have to look back at the week 12 encounter at Gillette Stadium where Tom Brady and co wiped out a Broncos lead of 24-0 to win the game 34-31 in overtime. That victory gave Brady his 10th victory over Manning in their 14 games against each other including the postseason. Let us look at the stats between the two in the encounters:




Now I will be the first to point out that tomorrow's game between Denver and New England is not just about these two men as it is between two teams who are both hungry to play in the biggest sporting spectacle on earth but whoever wins out of Brady or Manning will have their picture posted on websites across the world for the next fortnight. Brady's 10-4 career head-to-head over Manning says it all and his touchdown to interception ratio shows his efficiency. Brady leads in all categories but one and has a passer rating that is higher by 11! The only category that he doesn't lead in is passing yardage and you could argue that it is because Manning is behind in most games so his teams have chased the games meaning he passes more but enough of that.

No offence to Peyton Manning fans but they love to use statistics to fight their corner. I don't want to take anything away from Manning because he is one of the greatest to play at the position but unfortunately for him if the Broncos lose tomorrow that leaves Manning on his own with a record that nobody wants and that is a quarterback with the most losses in the postseason. 12 losses when it matters lost is unprecedented and that does not look good on anyone looking to leave a legacy.

Brady's legacy will be uncanny if he and the Patriots win the Super Bowl this year. The same applies for head coach Bill Belichick; he claimed his 19th victory as a coach in the playoffs when New England eased past the Colts last week which now leaves him tied in second place with Don Shula. If the Patriots win tomorrow Belichick will tie Tom Landry for the most playoff wins with 20 and if dare I say it the Patriots win the Super Bowl that would be the perfect way for Belichick to break the record and it will leave him on 21.

Back to Brady and his legacy; he is so close to being the greatest quarterback of all-time and if he guides an injury depleted Patriots side that has so many similarities to 2001 Super Bowl winning side it will be the perfect way to cement his name as the greatest to play the game. Brady is tied for Super Bowl appearances with John Elway having played in 5. He and Elway have both won 3 of those which leaves Brady just one shy of Montana and Bradshaw's record of 4 Super Bowl wins. Brady holds the record for playoff wins by a quarterback with 18 so a win tomorrow against Denver and a Super Bowl victory would see Brady end the 2013 season with 20 playoffs wins, 4 Super Bowl victories and 6 appearances in the big game which in my opinion leaves no debate as to who is the greatest quarterback to grace the NFL.

As I have pointed out though this is a team game and it will take a big performance from the New England Patriots to topple the Denver Broncos tomorrow. The Patriots are playing up to the title of underdog and why not because it puts pressure on the opponents. Personally I feel that they are underdogs as despite the fact that Brady can pick holes in a vulnerable Broncos secondary he goes up against a Broncos run defense that has improved in weeks gone by and they know that they have to stop the likes of Blount, Ridley and Vereen in order to win this game. On the flip side Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense is firing on all cylinders and the likes of Welker and Decker along with Julius and Demaryius Thomas will pose problems for a New England defense haunted by injuries.

For Denver to win this game is to score early because taking the pressure off Peyton Manning is a must especially in a conference championship which sees Manning take to the field in a game of his magnitude for the first time since the 2009 season (Brady on the other hand is making is 8th conference championship appearance). Now this may sound silly as it always applies but turnovers are the decisive and key factor for me. My explanation is that if the Patriots turn the ball over I feel they can still win this game but if the Broncos turn it over it'll cost them and they will lose. The more pressure on the Denver Broncos tomorrow and the more likely it'll be that they fall.

New England's defense is led by the defensive mastermind that is Bill Belichick and despite injuries to Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork the younger guy on the team like Chandler Jones and Hightower have been big for this team. Last week saw the emergence of Jamie Collins and he will be looking to build on his success from that win over the Colts. Rob Ninkovich and Dane Fletcher also deserve a mention too and then there's the secondary which possesses the likes of Aqib Talib, Devin McCourty, Alfonzo Dennard and Logan Ryan who can all hold their own against the firepower of the Broncos offense.

If the Pats defense can continue to force turnovers it will give them a very good chance of walking out of Mile High as winners tomorrow. Earlier on in the season I predicted that the two would meet in the AFC title game at Mile High and here it is. At the time I didn't anticipate that the Pats offense would become the ground and pound juggernaut that it has done in recent weeks led by LeGarrette Blount who continued wrecking havoc last week when he ran in for 4 touchdowns and 166 rushing yards which tied a franchise record. If the ground game gets going again with the one-two punch of Blount and Ridley it will open up Shane Vereen in the backfield for Tom Brady and also give him plenty of play-action opportunities which we saw tear Denver apart earlier in the season. Julian Edelman will obviously be crucial to any success the Patriots have tomorrow night and it is also the perfect time for Danny Amendola to step out of the shadow of Wes Welker by outplaying his opposite number. I could sit here night and day writing comparisons but the fact of the matter is that this New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos game will be one for the ages and a playoff game that will be remembered for years to come as well as possibly playing a critical role in deciding an argument that has gone on for years. Brady vs Manning part 15: Let the games begin!

Prediction: Patriots 31-30 Broncos

Saturday 11 January 2014

Colts vs Patriots: AFC Divisional Round



Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts roll in to Gillette stadium on the back of one of the greatest comeback wins in playoff history when they overcame the Kansas City Chiefs last weekend 45-44. Luck engineered a comeback which saw him bounce back from 3 interceptions in the game to tally up a total of 443 yards as well as 4 touchdown passes along with 29 completions out of 45 attempts.

It was Luck's first playoff victory and the second largest comeback in postseason history as the Colts bounced back from 38-10 deficit. Tonight they face the New England Patriots who have stared adversity full in the face throughout this 2013 season. The Patriots have found a way to win all year throughout various tough spots and scenarios with the team finishing the year 12-4. Middle linebacker Bradon Spikes went down this week ending his season which means that he joins the likes of Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, Sebastian Vollmer and Thomas Kelly which shows how depleted this defense core is plus it is impossible to forget that on offense superstar Rob Gronkowski is out with an ACL and MCL injury but we'll get to that later.

Despite the injuries on defense Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones have been shining stars all year with the two combining for 19.5 sacks this season. Jones is in his sophomore season and leads the New England pass rush with 11.5 sacks. Fellow sophomore Dont'a Hightower will suit up at running back along with athletic linebackers Dane Fletcher and rookie Jamie Collins so although they are thin at key positions they have the talent to succeed. These linebackers will need to stop in form Colts running back Donald Brown who continues to impress; last week he had 55 yards from 11 carries and a touchdown. Jones and Ninkovich are no slouches in the running game either so despite the fact that pass rushers don't traditionally shine against the running game the fact that they are willing to do dirty work to help the team is typically of the Patriot way and the winning identity Bill Belichick puts in his men.

To get to where they are is a testament to Belichick as a head coach and in the playoffs we know anything can happen so if this Patriots team did manage to win the Super Bowl it would surely be his greatest achievement to date. His main challenge tonight is to stop Colts wideout T.Y. Hilton who is coming in to this match on the back of his best career game with him going off last weekend as he caught two touchdowns and finished with 224 receiving yards. The Patriots secondary will have a tough challenge against him but we'll hope that the likes of Aqib Talib and Devin McCourty can stop his blistering speed with smart defensive blame to limit his output; Hilton had 100 yards and 2 touchdown passes when the two teams went head to head in 2012.

The last time these two teams met New England destroyed the Colts 59-24 but a lot has changed since then. Andrew Luck continues to show why he is one of the best quarterbacks in the league already despite it only being his second year; he has 11 game-winning drives in his career already and with a record of 22-10 Luck has one more win that Tom Brady from his first 32 career games (21-11). With that being said Tom Brady may not be having one of his best seasons statistically but as a leader there is nobody better as he has managed to pull his team out of many deep holes this year with late victories over the Saints and Browns as well as rallying back from a 24-0 deficit to defeat the high flying Denver Broncos!

More than likely the winner of tonight's matchup will face Denver in the AFC Championship game which sets up a mouthwatering encounter either way. Tom Brady and this Patriots team seem to have a feel of destiny around them with a win tonight setting them up with a shot at reaching another Super Bowl, the 6th of the Belichick-Brady era. Despite losing Rob Gronkowski to another season ending injury, Wes Welker to the Broncos and Aaron Hernandez to unforeseen circumstances New England continue to grind out victories this season. If anything despite their problems they have gone back to basics in recent weeks following Gronk's injury against Cleveland and have established a power running game with LaGarrette Blount leading the way by decimating opposing offenses. His season is picking up at the right time with the 27 year old running back becoming a key part of New England's offense heading in to the postseason; he set a team-record 344 all-purpose yards along with a personal best 189 yards on the ground and two touchdowns in the season finale against Buffalo.

Brady and Blount celebrating


Along with Blount the Patriots have Stevan Ridley who is perfect for the one-two punch running game to go with Blount. Ridley has speed and elusiveness which can go a long way to helping the Pats succeed in the playoffs providing he can cut out the high profile fumbling issues that surround him. Thankfully the emergence of Blount takes the pressure of of Ridley as being labelled as the team's primary running back and when you take in to account that fellow back Shane Vereen is one of Tom Brady's favourite targets it shows you the talent the Patriots still have on this team despite their many losses. Vereen is a valuable weapon in a depleted passing game with him turning up in the big games like the one against the Broncos earlier in the season. Vereen missed a chunk of games with a broken wrist but has 427 yards and 3 touchdown receptions on the year and he will be an asset to this offense heading in to win or go home time.

The key tonight will be the success of the Pats offense as Tom Brady has the ability and the know how to pick off weak points in the Indianapolis secondary. He will use the run game whenever necessary and thanks to its success he can rely on play-action plays which he executes to perfection. Brady has a 99.8 passer rating on play-action passes this season in comparison to his general passer rating for the year of 87.3. Despite the statistics he has improved in the second half of the year and finished the regular season with 4,343 passing yards along with 25 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. The offensive line will need to protect the superstar quarterback from the Colts' main pass rusher Robert Mathis who has been rejuvenated this year with the 33 year old playing one of the best seasons of his illustrious career; he leads the league with 19.5 sacks this season and when you consider the team themselves have 42 on the year that is outstanding.

Brady has Julian Edeleman in the passing game to rely on like he has done throughout most of 2013 especially when Gronk missed the early part of the season and since his season ending injury. Julian Edelman defines what a Bill Belichick player is all about as he is so productive in the head coaches system and has come up big with Brady in many matches this year. For the first time in his career Edeleman hauled in over 100 catches and racked up over 1000 receiving yards as he finished the regular season with 6 touchdowns. With rookie wideout Aaron Dobson ruled out and Kenbrell Thompkins questionable it falls to the likes of Edelman, Vereen and 2013 summer acquisition Danny Amendola to get things done for Terrific Tom in the passing game. Personally I feel now is the time for Amendola to shine as he has shown his toughness to overcome injuries and he clearly has a good rapport with Brady that will be effective enough to come up big when it matters most which is now in the playoffs.

Despite a troublesome groin injury and some growing pains in this offense Amendola ended the regular season with 663 receiving yards and two touchdowns. With the Patriots' playoff journey starting tonight Amendola will need to pull his weight and ensure he can reach Edelman's level of production so that Brady has two valuable and reliable wideouts. The playoffs are a clean slate and anything can happen which is something we have seen a lot over recent years as getting hot can end with your team lifting that Lombardi trophy high in the sky. Tom Brady and the Patriots may be 7-7 in the postseason since 2005, he started his career with 10 straight postseason wins, but Terrific Tom holds the record for most playoff victories with 17. Three more wins would leave him on an unprecedented 20 victories in crunch time and with a 4th Super Bowl ring from 6 appearances in the big one cementing his place as the greatest QB to play the game. Each of the last three times the Colts and Patriots have gone head to head in the postseason has resulted in the winner going on to win the Super Bowl so whoever comes out on top tonight could well go on to win it all come February 2nd at MetLife Stadium. For the Patriots they always confront adversity full in the face and a victory tonight will show their metal. Defying the odds are what great teams are made of so if Tom Brady and co pull out a win tonight who's to say that can't go all the way because when the games on the line there's nobody better than Brady to lead your team in to battle. 

It's playoff time!

Sunday 5 January 2014

Playoffs: Sunday Wild Card Picks

Last night I went 1-1. The dream I had about the Chiefs winning was nothing but a dream as they lost an 8th straight playoff game. Who am I to question the magic of Andrew Luck and as a Andrew Luck fan I should have seen that comeback coming even if it was unthinkable! Credit where it is due to come back from 38-10 was amazing so well done to the Colts. As for the Saints well they showed grit and determination to leave Lincoln Financial Field with a 26-24 victory which wasn't far from my 34-27 prediction.

Nevertheless New Orleans won to spare my blushes from getting a doughnut from those two predictions and now I will share my thoughts will you all regarding today's final two wildcard round games. Let the excitement of the playoffs continue!


San Diego Chargers vs Cincinnati Bengals

The San Diego Chargers crept in to the playoffs last week with an overtime victory over the Chiefs in a game full of drama. Now Phillip Rivers and co go on the road to take on a Bengals team that finished the regular season 8-0 at home. Getting hot just before the playoffs has been a recipe for success in recent memory and with San Diego winning 4 straight coming in to this you can expect this to be a close one and a possible shootout too!

This game sees two quarterbacks who thew for over 30 touchdowns in the regular season go head to head with each other. Rivers threw 32 touchdowns to 11 picks whereas Andy Dalton threw one more touchdown with 33 on the year but also had 9 more interceptions with 20. To put this game down to the QB's is simplistic but as we know in the win or game home games it is the quarterback's who are either the hero or the villain depending on the outcome of the result.

Personally I think this is the toughest game to call of the week especially when you consider that both offenses have so many options. San Diego have Phillip Rivers throwing to rookie revelation Keenan Allen who hauled in 8 touchdown passes for over a 1000 yards! They have tight end Antonio Gates who still remains a threat especially in the redzone along with running back Ryan Matthews, the dynamic Danny Woodhead and the explosive Eddie Royal.

The Bengals have Andy Dalton throwing to monster wide receiver AJ Green who finished the year with 11 touchdown catches and Marvin Jones who is so underrated; his 10 touchdown catches and for 712 yards can't be overlooked. The Law Firm and Giovani Bernard at running back pose problems for the Chargers too but there is more pressure on the backs of Cincinnati today because the Chargers are ranked 6th in points allowed per game which shows their defenses strengths in key situations like the redzone.

The last time these two teams met the Bengals defeated San Diego 17-10 so you can expect today's game to be close but a lot more intense when you consider what is at stake. Andy Dalton is the least hit QB in the league but we know how he can crumble under pressure and with the Bengals looking for their first playoff victory in 14 years along with this great home record they have you get the impression that they could crumble again in this matchup. The Chargers have nothing to lose; personally I feel they deserve to be in the playoffs but the fact that they got here is down to hard work, determination and a bit of luck which is what you need at times to succeed in sport.

Earlier in the week I was riding with San Diego and then my head told me that the logical choice was the Bengals but when you consider the unexpected nature of the playoffs and what Phillip Rivers has been doing this year I think that the Chargers will pull out to what some will see as a shock result. I am going to base my decision down to this two things; The Chargers are hot and momentum is key in the playoffs so when you put that with the fact that in my opinion Mike McCoy is a better head coach than Marvin Lewis I feel that in a high pressure situation McCoy guides his San Diego team to beat the favoured Bengals to take his team to Mile High next week to face the Broncos.

Prediction: Chargers 27-24 Bengals


San Francisco 49ers vs Green Bay Packers

One of the NFL's oldest and most exciting rivalries is renewed tonight but the San Francisco 49ers go up against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field in a cold weather game which is set to give this matchup an old school feel.

The Packers got in to the playoffs last weekend with a late victory over the Chicago Bears thanks to some heroics from returning quarterback Aaron Rodgers. On paper you'd have had the Niners to defeat the Bears or the Detroit Lions from the NFC North but going up against the Packers complicates things. Despite the grit and determination of the men in green and yellow San Francisco are not exactly pushovers; they are a hard working football team and are winners which comes from head coach Jim Harbaugh who is a natural born leader who strives for success.

The Niners have a monster defense with the likes of NaVorro Bowman, Justin Smith, Ahmad Brooks and Aldon Smith who will be looking to put some personal woes behind him with playoff success for the franchise. Patrick Willis is also a big time player for this defensive unit but although you'd think that the Niners need to be prepared for Aaron Rodgers personally I feel that the Niners will win this game if they manage to stop the run. Packers rookie running back Eddie Lacy has been one of the teams high points ranking third in the league in touchdowns with 11 and 8th in yardage with 1,178.

If Lacy can be stopped this puts more pressure on Rodgers in the passing game; his 66 yards along with James Starks' 88 yards helped the Packers stay in the game against Chicago last week and both will have to be at it again if they are to succeed in tonight's encounter. The Green Bay receiving core can get back to business though after Rodgers' return so the likes of Nelson, Jones, Boykin and Randall Cobb to all chip in and help the cause.

Famous road victories are part and parcel of the playoffs and I feel like San Francisco have a huge opportunity to win tonight setting them up against Carolina next week. Colin Kaepernick has had two huge games against the Packers in his two career meetings against them which include last seasons playoff victory and a impressive performance in the opening week of this year when he completed 27/39 passes for 412 yards and 3 touchdowns. The 49ers are getting healthy at the right time with one of Kaepernick's favourite targets Michael Crabtree returning to action recently; along with him they have one of the best tight ends in the league with Vernon Davis as well as the likes of Anquan Boldin who lit the playoffs up last season for the Ravens. When you put their passing game with an established running game led by Frank Gore as well as Kaepernick's ability to use his legs himself and extend plays you've got to say that San Francisco edges this one and leaves Lambeau Field victorious.

Prediction: 49ers 31-27 Packers

Saturday 4 January 2014

Playoffs: Saturday Wild Card picks

The NFL playoffs are set to begin in a few hours and I am back after some time to share my predictions with you all. Tonight sees the Colts host the Chiefs and the Eagles entertain the Saints with Sunday's lineup including the Chargers vs Bengals and a high profile matchup in the last game of the weekend when the 49ers travel to take on the Packers.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts

Both teams finished the season 11-5 and a week ago I had all my predictions set for this matchup including this one. After finally finding some time to blog and grabbing a decent nights rest yesterday I had a dream and for some reason it was about the Colts losing this game although for some reason the Chiefs QB had long hair and a weird beard so maybe Alex Smith will wear a wig tonight?

On paper this is a tough one to call because the Chiefs have been questioned a lot this year despite starting the season 9-0. At that point I told a very good friend of mine they would lose at least 4 games before the regular season ended and as we all know they have lost 5 of their last 7 including their last two; the defeat to the Chargers did see them rest their key players though. Andy Reid has revitalised the Chiefs by taking them to the postseason with the team looking to secure their first victory in the playoffs since Joe Montana was the quarterback which was now two decades ago yes back in 1994!

It may not have been as long as that since the Colts last won a playoff game but the last time they did win in the postseason they were also being led by a great quarterback; none other than Peyton Manning. They haven't won a playoff game since the 2009 season which ended in Super Bowl defeat to the New Orleans Saints. 2010 saw them lose to the Jets and 2010 was an off year for Indianapolis due to Manning's season ending shoulder injury but they got lucky with timing and drafted Andrew Luck who took them back to the postseason in his rookie year as well as helped guide the Colts to their first division title since Manning left this season.

Quarterback Andrew Luck is something special and despite losing star receiver Reggie Wayne he has had a brilliant second season throwing 23 touchdowns again but has reduced his interceptions from 18 in 2012 to just 9 this year. The Colts turnovers are always very low and so are the Chiefs which means any turnovers tonight will pretty much count as double especially in a playoff game. The more I write the more I want to plummet for the Colts but I just feel that after they defeated the Chiefs 23-7 on the road a couple of weeks ago it all seems too simple to go for them and in the playoffs nothing is ever simple or as it seems.

The Chiefs will get back to winning ways tonight for the following three reasons: 1. Jamaal Charles. 2. A defense that ranks 5th in the league and 3. Due to the fact that they won't turn it over 4 times again like they did when they played the Colts last time. Jamaal Charles will get more touches tonight than in the last encounter; he has 12 rushing touchdowns and 9 receiving ones. Alex Smith has 23 touchdowns and just 7 picks to his name and with his trusty sidekicks Charles and Dwayne Bowe the Chiefs will progress to the divisional round next week albeit in a close one.

Prediction: Colts 25-27 Chiefs


New Orleans Saints vs Philadelphia Eagles

The 11-5 Saints are back in the playoffs thanks to head coach Sean Payton working his magic. New Orleans have been effective on both sides of the ball and despite missing out on the NFC South title to the Panthers it may come as a blessing in disguise as they could build momentum with a win tonight to take them deep in to the postseason. The Eagles finished 10-6 after defeating the Dallas Cowboys last week in the winner takes all match for the NFC East.

Both teams have advantages at certain positions but the quarterback matchup will be key tonight when Drew Brees goes up against the red hot Nick Foles. Foles started 13 of the Eagles' 16 games throwing a ridiculous 27 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions but will the pressure of the playoffs be too much for the young QB? His opposite number Brees finished the regular season ranked second in the league in both touchdown passes, 39, and passing yards with 5,162 so with him going up against NFL's worst ranked defense in passing yardage per game this could prove to be problematic for Philadelphia.

Despite New Orleans not being the best road team at times I feel like the Eagles are poised to be give their fans another let down. With all due respect to Chip Kelly he has been a breath of fresh air to the league and his fast pace offense will give Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan problems especially when you consider that Philadelphia have one of the best running backs in the league in the shape of LeSean McCoy.

I feel that despite the pros for an Eagles win that going with them is more of a heart over head decision. When you break it down the Saints should win this one despite the fact that they have their leading rusher out Pierre Thomas. Darren Sproles will see more of the ball and can get out of the backfield to make a play and tight end Jimmy Graham is a matchup nightmare; Graham finished the season ranked first in the NFL with 16 receiving touchdowns. The Saints receiving core will give the Eagles secondary problems and New Orleans also have the second-ranked pass defense in the league. they only allow 194.1 yards passing per game in 2013 and in three of their last four game they have manage to keep the opposition for under 200 yards passing so this will limit Foles' aerial attack and plus they have Keenan Lewis at corner who could give Eagles wideout DeSean Jackson some problems.

Prediction: Saints 34-27 Eagles