Saturday, 12 January 2013

NFL divisonal round

There are 3 hours until the divisional round of the NFL playoffs begin! Last week's wild card round brought us plenty of excitement with the Seahawks, Packers, Ravens and Texans all progressing. We'll take a look at each game now with predictions from yours truly.

Baltimore Ravens vs Denver Broncos

The Ravens are rejuvenated following the return of influential leader Ray Lewis. The linebacker returned from injury last week against the Colts are played incredibly well as he racked up 9 tackles and almost got an interception which would have capped off a perfect day for Baltimore. Last week they played the rookie Andrew Luck and no disrespect to him because he has all the talent in the world but last week the Colts just didn't show up but this week the Ravens have a huge task ahead of them when they go on the road to face Peyton Manning's Broncos.

Denver finished the regular season 13-3 with the join best record in the league and the best record in the AFC. They have won their last 11 games in a row and Manning has been spectacular in his first year as a Bronco. Many have the Bronco's down to win this especially after they knocked off the Ravens 34-17 three weeks ago but here I am about to give Baltimore some hope with two key points:

1. Peyton Manning despite being arguably one of if not the greatest quarterback to play the game actually does not have a great playoff record. While we all know his regular season success has been well documented over the years in the post-season Manning won 9 and lost 10 throwing 29 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. The stats are not great and you could compare him to Bronco's legend John Elway for maybe not being able to get it done in the "big games" although both are former Super Bowl champions so they are not exactly choke artists.

2. Now this may sound like I am clutching at straws but hear me out; when the weather is cold Manning freezes under pressure, sorry I couldn't resist it. When the temperature has been below 32 degrees Manning has only won 3/8 games now obviously when he was quarterback for the Colts they played indoors but Denver has high altitude and not the greatest of weather at this time of year. The temperature is predicted to be around 20 degrees in Denver when kick-off comes around so who knows what will happen and it is worth mentioning that Peyton Manning also lost his only two cold playoff games with both ending in defeat to the New England Patriots with him just throwing one touchdown and a costly five interceptions in those two games.

With that being said maybe the most important stat of all is that Manning is 9-2 against the Ravens in his career and even worse for the Ravens is that those two defeats came in his first two games against Baltimore so since that loss in 2001 Manning has won 9 straight against them. When the two teams go head to head tonight the league's number 5 offense takes on the league's number 16th defense and with the Broncos themselves ranked number 2 on total defense you can expect Denver to advance to the AFC Championship game.

Predicted Score: Ravens 24-30 Broncos


Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers

I think on paper this game is the most evenly matched out of the four we have for the divisional round and it really is so close to call. The 49ers pipped the Packers to the bye week and thanks to Green Bay's convincing win last weekend against the Vikings they now travel to Candlestick Park to play San Francisco. Both of these teams suffered the same fate in last season's playoffs when they were defeated by the New York Giants but this year with the two matching up against each other both will believe that with a win tonight they will be the ones to go on and represent the NFC at Super Bowl 47.

These are the two best teams in the NFC but both get things done differently. The 49ers offensive has taken a new lease of life since the emergence of second year quarterback Colin Kaepernick and with it now being dynamic in the air as well as being dangerous on the ground they are almost as scary on this side of the ball as they are on defense. The Niners defense is ranked 3rd in the league in total yardage giving up less than 300 yards a game but we saw how they almost threw away a big lead when they took on the offensive might of the New England Patriots during the regular season and how they were swept away by the Seahawks so there are signs that the Packers can get it done tonight.

Although their defense is improving Green Bay getting it done on offense will be the main factor tonight. If the likes of Greg Jennings, Randall Cobb and Jermichael Finley can get it done then the Packers have a chance. With that being said it will be down to quarterback Aaron Rodgers to get the ball to them but if he can continue his regular season form and put in another MVP like performance for the Packers then I fancy them to beat San Francisco in their own back garden. Jim Harbaugh made a tough call when he put in Kaepernick for Alex Smith and although the young kid has lot of talent I think a playoff run is a step to far this season and ultimately the decision to bring him in will haunt Harbaugh but only for now as from next season onwards the Niners will come out firing on all cylinders.

Predicted Score: Packers 30-27 49ers


Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons

I wouldn't necessarily call the Seattle Seahawks a surprise package but let's just say I don't think nobody predicted this football team would look so complete in the 2012 season. Tomorrow they come up against a Falcons team that has looked like a complete squad for a couple of seasons but a win in the playoffs still eludes them.

The Seahawks finished the regular season 8-0 at home but were only 3-5 on the road. With that being said they went on the road last weekend and beat the Redskins 24-14 to move on to 12-5 this season. The team's defensive is ranked 4th best overall for yardage in the league and 3rd in the playoffs just trailing the Broncos and the 49ers. The Seahawks boast having the best defense in the league when it comes to their opponents scoring against them and out of the remaining teams in the NFC they have the best turnover differential along with none other than the Atlanta Falcons with plus 13.

The Falcons offense has been brilliant for the majority of the season but they haven't blown any teams out of shown that wow factor which some would require is needed to get to the next level. Nitty gritty wins are good as your team shows heart but it just seems like the Falcons may choke once again especially when you look back to when they played the Cardinals and Matt Ryan threw 5 interceptions.

This matchup for many comes down to the Falcons offense vs the Seahawks defense but for me I think the decisive factor will be how well Seattle themselves do on offense. They go to the Georgia Dome which is by no means the easiest place to play in and rookie quarterback Russell Wilson will have to show composure once again if he is to lead his team to a victory on the road. The rookie QB was efficient last weekend against Washington when he threw 1 touchdown pass for 187 yards and we know he can hit the next gear as he tied Peyton Manning's rookie touchdown record during the regular season when he threw 26 touchdown passes.

If Wilson performs and Marshawn Lynch gets it done like we know he can when he is called upon by this Seattle offense then I think the Seahawks knock off the number one seed Falcons and advance to the NFC Championship game. Oh and you can expect cornerback Richard Sherman to intercept Matt Ryan tomorrow night and add to his 8 interceptions this season.

Predicted Score: Seahawks 28-20 Falcons


Houston Texans vs New England Patriots

The last time these two teams played the New England Patriots destroyed the Texans 42-14. Tom Brady dismantled Houston's defense but now it's the playoffs and as we know anything can happen. The Texans will want revenge and will want to give what they feel to be a true account of themselves when they come up against the Patriots again tomorrow night but despite their wild card win over the Bengals the Texans once again looked lackluster on offense in comparison to the team we saw during the early stages of the regular season.

Texans quarterback Matt Schaub will feel he has a point to prove when he takes his team on the road as he looks to prove he has what it takes to be elite. Judging on his season to date especially looking at recent form the chances of him instigating a performance to shock the Patriots is unlikely but that was also said of Jets QB Mark Sanchez in the 2010 season, After New England humiliated the Jets 45-3 in the regular season Sanchez and Gang Green went on the road to knock off their rivals 28-21 in the divisional round.

So that brings us to the 2012 playoffs and the New England Patriots are in a very similar scenario. Whether they have the comparisons to the 2010 season in their mind is anyone's call but you could say that is unlikely as this football team is completely different to the 2010 Patriots. Last season New England just missed out on a 4th Super Bowl championship and you can see that Tom Brady and the Patriots are on a redemption mission this season to get back to the big game for another shot at the Lombardi trophy.

On offense Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has once again been in spectacular form as he finished the regular season with 34 touchdowns to just 8 interceptions. Tomorrow he could overtake the legendary Joe Montana for playoff wins and move on to 17 post-season victories if they can knock off the Texans. That looks likely now that they have tight end Rob Gronkowski back on offense, he didn't play in the blowout, and now that the running game has regained stability along with a defense that leads the league in turnover differential with +25 the signs are there for a New England win.

For the Texans to win J.J. Watt needs to rediscover his superstar form. You can expect Houston to throw a lot of blitz packages at Tom Brady tomorrow with Watt himself leading his group all in hope of getting to Brady. Any chance Houston has of winning though will depend on the offense's ability to get first downs and put points on the board; now that sounds obvious but they didn't do it last time and have struggled to do that of late.

You can expect this game to be much closer than the two teams first encounter but with the Patriots being at home again and their roster back to pretty much full strength ahead of the playoffs expect New England to start their playoff run with a win as they advance to the AFC Championship game next week.

Predicted Score: Texans 24-34 Patriots

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