Colts vs Patriots: AFC Divisional Round

Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts roll in to Gillette stadium on the back of one of the greatest comeback wins in playoff history when they overcame the Kansas City Chiefs last weekend 45-44. Luck engineered a comeback which saw him bounce back from 3 interceptions in the game to tally up a total of 443 yards as well as 4 touchdown passes along with 29 completions out of 45 attempts.

It was Luck's first playoff victory and the second largest comeback in postseason history as the Colts bounced back from 38-10 deficit. Tonight they face the New England Patriots who have stared adversity full in the face throughout this 2013 season. The Patriots have found a way to win all year throughout various tough spots and scenarios with the team finishing the year 12-4. Middle linebacker Bradon Spikes went down this week ending his season which means that he joins the likes of Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, Sebastian Vollmer and Thomas Kelly which shows how depleted this defense core is plus it is impossible to forget that on offense superstar Rob Gronkowski is out with an ACL and MCL injury but we'll get to that later.

Despite the injuries on defense Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones have been shining stars all year with the two combining for 19.5 sacks this season. Jones is in his sophomore season and leads the New England pass rush with 11.5 sacks. Fellow sophomore Dont'a Hightower will suit up at running back along with athletic linebackers Dane Fletcher and rookie Jamie Collins so although they are thin at key positions they have the talent to succeed. These linebackers will need to stop in form Colts running back Donald Brown who continues to impress; last week he had 55 yards from 11 carries and a touchdown. Jones and Ninkovich are no slouches in the running game either so despite the fact that pass rushers don't traditionally shine against the running game the fact that they are willing to do dirty work to help the team is typically of the Patriot way and the winning identity Bill Belichick puts in his men.

To get to where they are is a testament to Belichick as a head coach and in the playoffs we know anything can happen so if this Patriots team did manage to win the Super Bowl it would surely be his greatest achievement to date. His main challenge tonight is to stop Colts wideout T.Y. Hilton who is coming in to this match on the back of his best career game with him going off last weekend as he caught two touchdowns and finished with 224 receiving yards. The Patriots secondary will have a tough challenge against him but we'll hope that the likes of Aqib Talib and Devin McCourty can stop his blistering speed with smart defensive blame to limit his output; Hilton had 100 yards and 2 touchdown passes when the two teams went head to head in 2012.

The last time these two teams met New England destroyed the Colts 59-24 but a lot has changed since then. Andrew Luck continues to show why he is one of the best quarterbacks in the league already despite it only being his second year; he has 11 game-winning drives in his career already and with a record of 22-10 Luck has one more win that Tom Brady from his first 32 career games (21-11). With that being said Tom Brady may not be having one of his best seasons statistically but as a leader there is nobody better as he has managed to pull his team out of many deep holes this year with late victories over the Saints and Browns as well as rallying back from a 24-0 deficit to defeat the high flying Denver Broncos!

More than likely the winner of tonight's matchup will face Denver in the AFC Championship game which sets up a mouthwatering encounter either way. Tom Brady and this Patriots team seem to have a feel of destiny around them with a win tonight setting them up with a shot at reaching another Super Bowl, the 6th of the Belichick-Brady era. Despite losing Rob Gronkowski to another season ending injury, Wes Welker to the Broncos and Aaron Hernandez to unforeseen circumstances New England continue to grind out victories this season. If anything despite their problems they have gone back to basics in recent weeks following Gronk's injury against Cleveland and have established a power running game with LaGarrette Blount leading the way by decimating opposing offenses. His season is picking up at the right time with the 27 year old running back becoming a key part of New England's offense heading in to the postseason; he set a team-record 344 all-purpose yards along with a personal best 189 yards on the ground and two touchdowns in the season finale against Buffalo.

Brady and Blount celebrating

Along with Blount the Patriots have Stevan Ridley who is perfect for the one-two punch running game to go with Blount. Ridley has speed and elusiveness which can go a long way to helping the Pats succeed in the playoffs providing he can cut out the high profile fumbling issues that surround him. Thankfully the emergence of Blount takes the pressure of of Ridley as being labelled as the team's primary running back and when you take in to account that fellow back Shane Vereen is one of Tom Brady's favourite targets it shows you the talent the Patriots still have on this team despite their many losses. Vereen is a valuable weapon in a depleted passing game with him turning up in the big games like the one against the Broncos earlier in the season. Vereen missed a chunk of games with a broken wrist but has 427 yards and 3 touchdown receptions on the year and he will be an asset to this offense heading in to win or go home time.

The key tonight will be the success of the Pats offense as Tom Brady has the ability and the know how to pick off weak points in the Indianapolis secondary. He will use the run game whenever necessary and thanks to its success he can rely on play-action plays which he executes to perfection. Brady has a 99.8 passer rating on play-action passes this season in comparison to his general passer rating for the year of 87.3. Despite the statistics he has improved in the second half of the year and finished the regular season with 4,343 passing yards along with 25 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. The offensive line will need to protect the superstar quarterback from the Colts' main pass rusher Robert Mathis who has been rejuvenated this year with the 33 year old playing one of the best seasons of his illustrious career; he leads the league with 19.5 sacks this season and when you consider the team themselves have 42 on the year that is outstanding.

Brady has Julian Edeleman in the passing game to rely on like he has done throughout most of 2013 especially when Gronk missed the early part of the season and since his season ending injury. Julian Edelman defines what a Bill Belichick player is all about as he is so productive in the head coaches system and has come up big with Brady in many matches this year. For the first time in his career Edeleman hauled in over 100 catches and racked up over 1000 receiving yards as he finished the regular season with 6 touchdowns. With rookie wideout Aaron Dobson ruled out and Kenbrell Thompkins questionable it falls to the likes of Edelman, Vereen and 2013 summer acquisition Danny Amendola to get things done for Terrific Tom in the passing game. Personally I feel now is the time for Amendola to shine as he has shown his toughness to overcome injuries and he clearly has a good rapport with Brady that will be effective enough to come up big when it matters most which is now in the playoffs.

Despite a troublesome groin injury and some growing pains in this offense Amendola ended the regular season with 663 receiving yards and two touchdowns. With the Patriots' playoff journey starting tonight Amendola will need to pull his weight and ensure he can reach Edelman's level of production so that Brady has two valuable and reliable wideouts. The playoffs are a clean slate and anything can happen which is something we have seen a lot over recent years as getting hot can end with your team lifting that Lombardi trophy high in the sky. Tom Brady and the Patriots may be 7-7 in the postseason since 2005, he started his career with 10 straight postseason wins, but Terrific Tom holds the record for most playoff victories with 17. Three more wins would leave him on an unprecedented 20 victories in crunch time and with a 4th Super Bowl ring from 6 appearances in the big one cementing his place as the greatest QB to play the game. Each of the last three times the Colts and Patriots have gone head to head in the postseason has resulted in the winner going on to win the Super Bowl so whoever comes out on top tonight could well go on to win it all come February 2nd at MetLife Stadium. For the Patriots they always confront adversity full in the face and a victory tonight will show their metal. Defying the odds are what great teams are made of so if Tom Brady and co pull out a win tonight who's to say that can't go all the way because when the games on the line there's nobody better than Brady to lead your team in to battle. 

It's playoff time!

NFL divisonal round

There are 3 hours until the divisional round of the NFL playoffs begin! Last week's wild card round brought us plenty of excitement with the Seahawks, Packers, Ravens and Texans all progressing. We'll take a look at each game now with predictions from yours truly.

Baltimore Ravens vs Denver Broncos

The Ravens are rejuvenated following the return of influential leader Ray Lewis. The linebacker returned from injury last week against the Colts are played incredibly well as he racked up 9 tackles and almost got an interception which would have capped off a perfect day for Baltimore. Last week they played the rookie Andrew Luck and no disrespect to him because he has all the talent in the world but last week the Colts just didn't show up but this week the Ravens have a huge task ahead of them when they go on the road to face Peyton Manning's Broncos.

Denver finished the regular season 13-3 with the join best record in the league and the best record in the AFC. They have won their last 11 games in a row and Manning has been spectacular in his first year as a Bronco. Many have the Bronco's down to win this especially after they knocked off the Ravens 34-17 three weeks ago but here I am about to give Baltimore some hope with two key points:

1. Peyton Manning despite being arguably one of if not the greatest quarterback to play the game actually does not have a great playoff record. While we all know his regular season success has been well documented over the years in the post-season Manning won 9 and lost 10 throwing 29 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. The stats are not great and you could compare him to Bronco's legend John Elway for maybe not being able to get it done in the "big games" although both are former Super Bowl champions so they are not exactly choke artists.

2. Now this may sound like I am clutching at straws but hear me out; when the weather is cold Manning freezes under pressure, sorry I couldn't resist it. When the temperature has been below 32 degrees Manning has only won 3/8 games now obviously when he was quarterback for the Colts they played indoors but Denver has high altitude and not the greatest of weather at this time of year. The temperature is predicted to be around 20 degrees in Denver when kick-off comes around so who knows what will happen and it is worth mentioning that Peyton Manning also lost his only two cold playoff games with both ending in defeat to the New England Patriots with him just throwing one touchdown and a costly five interceptions in those two games.

With that being said maybe the most important stat of all is that Manning is 9-2 against the Ravens in his career and even worse for the Ravens is that those two defeats came in his first two games against Baltimore so since that loss in 2001 Manning has won 9 straight against them. When the two teams go head to head tonight the league's number 5 offense takes on the league's number 16th defense and with the Broncos themselves ranked number 2 on total defense you can expect Denver to advance to the AFC Championship game.

Predicted Score: Ravens 24-30 Broncos


Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers

I think on paper this game is the most evenly matched out of the four we have for the divisional round and it really is so close to call. The 49ers pipped the Packers to the bye week and thanks to Green Bay's convincing win last weekend against the Vikings they now travel to Candlestick Park to play San Francisco. Both of these teams suffered the same fate in last season's playoffs when they were defeated by the New York Giants but this year with the two matching up against each other both will believe that with a win tonight they will be the ones to go on and represent the NFC at Super Bowl 47.

These are the two best teams in the NFC but both get things done differently. The 49ers offensive has taken a new lease of life since the emergence of second year quarterback Colin Kaepernick and with it now being dynamic in the air as well as being dangerous on the ground they are almost as scary on this side of the ball as they are on defense. The Niners defense is ranked 3rd in the league in total yardage giving up less than 300 yards a game but we saw how they almost threw away a big lead when they took on the offensive might of the New England Patriots during the regular season and how they were swept away by the Seahawks so there are signs that the Packers can get it done tonight.

Although their defense is improving Green Bay getting it done on offense will be the main factor tonight. If the likes of Greg Jennings, Randall Cobb and Jermichael Finley can get it done then the Packers have a chance. With that being said it will be down to quarterback Aaron Rodgers to get the ball to them but if he can continue his regular season form and put in another MVP like performance for the Packers then I fancy them to beat San Francisco in their own back garden. Jim Harbaugh made a tough call when he put in Kaepernick for Alex Smith and although the young kid has lot of talent I think a playoff run is a step to far this season and ultimately the decision to bring him in will haunt Harbaugh but only for now as from next season onwards the Niners will come out firing on all cylinders.

Predicted Score: Packers 30-27 49ers


Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons

I wouldn't necessarily call the Seattle Seahawks a surprise package but let's just say I don't think nobody predicted this football team would look so complete in the 2012 season. Tomorrow they come up against a Falcons team that has looked like a complete squad for a couple of seasons but a win in the playoffs still eludes them.

The Seahawks finished the regular season 8-0 at home but were only 3-5 on the road. With that being said they went on the road last weekend and beat the Redskins 24-14 to move on to 12-5 this season. The team's defensive is ranked 4th best overall for yardage in the league and 3rd in the playoffs just trailing the Broncos and the 49ers. The Seahawks boast having the best defense in the league when it comes to their opponents scoring against them and out of the remaining teams in the NFC they have the best turnover differential along with none other than the Atlanta Falcons with plus 13.

The Falcons offense has been brilliant for the majority of the season but they haven't blown any teams out of shown that wow factor which some would require is needed to get to the next level. Nitty gritty wins are good as your team shows heart but it just seems like the Falcons may choke once again especially when you look back to when they played the Cardinals and Matt Ryan threw 5 interceptions.

This matchup for many comes down to the Falcons offense vs the Seahawks defense but for me I think the decisive factor will be how well Seattle themselves do on offense. They go to the Georgia Dome which is by no means the easiest place to play in and rookie quarterback Russell Wilson will have to show composure once again if he is to lead his team to a victory on the road. The rookie QB was efficient last weekend against Washington when he threw 1 touchdown pass for 187 yards and we know he can hit the next gear as he tied Peyton Manning's rookie touchdown record during the regular season when he threw 26 touchdown passes.

If Wilson performs and Marshawn Lynch gets it done like we know he can when he is called upon by this Seattle offense then I think the Seahawks knock off the number one seed Falcons and advance to the NFC Championship game. Oh and you can expect cornerback Richard Sherman to intercept Matt Ryan tomorrow night and add to his 8 interceptions this season.

Predicted Score: Seahawks 28-20 Falcons


Houston Texans vs New England Patriots

The last time these two teams played the New England Patriots destroyed the Texans 42-14. Tom Brady dismantled Houston's defense but now it's the playoffs and as we know anything can happen. The Texans will want revenge and will want to give what they feel to be a true account of themselves when they come up against the Patriots again tomorrow night but despite their wild card win over the Bengals the Texans once again looked lackluster on offense in comparison to the team we saw during the early stages of the regular season.

Texans quarterback Matt Schaub will feel he has a point to prove when he takes his team on the road as he looks to prove he has what it takes to be elite. Judging on his season to date especially looking at recent form the chances of him instigating a performance to shock the Patriots is unlikely but that was also said of Jets QB Mark Sanchez in the 2010 season, After New England humiliated the Jets 45-3 in the regular season Sanchez and Gang Green went on the road to knock off their rivals 28-21 in the divisional round.

So that brings us to the 2012 playoffs and the New England Patriots are in a very similar scenario. Whether they have the comparisons to the 2010 season in their mind is anyone's call but you could say that is unlikely as this football team is completely different to the 2010 Patriots. Last season New England just missed out on a 4th Super Bowl championship and you can see that Tom Brady and the Patriots are on a redemption mission this season to get back to the big game for another shot at the Lombardi trophy.

On offense Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has once again been in spectacular form as he finished the regular season with 34 touchdowns to just 8 interceptions. Tomorrow he could overtake the legendary Joe Montana for playoff wins and move on to 17 post-season victories if they can knock off the Texans. That looks likely now that they have tight end Rob Gronkowski back on offense, he didn't play in the blowout, and now that the running game has regained stability along with a defense that leads the league in turnover differential with +25 the signs are there for a New England win.

For the Texans to win J.J. Watt needs to rediscover his superstar form. You can expect Houston to throw a lot of blitz packages at Tom Brady tomorrow with Watt himself leading his group all in hope of getting to Brady. Any chance Houston has of winning though will depend on the offense's ability to get first downs and put points on the board; now that sounds obvious but they didn't do it last time and have struggled to do that of late.

You can expect this game to be much closer than the two teams first encounter but with the Patriots being at home again and their roster back to pretty much full strength ahead of the playoffs expect New England to start their playoff run with a win as they advance to the AFC Championship game next week.

Predicted Score: Texans 24-34 Patriots